The Black Swan Risks for 2016

(Image Courtesy: Visual Capitalist)

Société Générale has come out with their most recent list of what the bank considers to be potential “black swans” to the market.

Downside risks and their probability:

  • 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU (Impact: low)
  • 30% – China’s economy has a hard landing (Impact: high)
  • 25% – U.S. consumers save more than expected (Impact: medium)
  • 10% – Fed hikes too late (Impact: medium to high)
  • 10% – New global recession (Impact: high)

Upside risks and their probability:

  • 20% – Stronger investment and trade (Impact: medium to high)
  • 15% – More fiscal accommodation (Impact: medium)
  • 10% – Fast track reform (Impact: low)

Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist

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