By Alan Steel
I was recently referred to what I’m told is a highly regarded website with big name editors and analysts that focuses on finance and investing, so I had a look.
Now, in my view the best way to check the value of any website or advisor or celebrity analyst is to research them.
In simplest terms you can use Google: Write their name in the search box, put a date next to it and a then a topic; like this: “The Sovereign Investor Daily, December 2015, Gold, Cash, Bear Market.”
Now, we are all open to the same scrutiny by doing this (myself included).
So, let’s see what was predicted a year ago by these geniuses and what actually happened:
Prediction: We are facing the death of cash. (Dec 2015)
Nope. Need to get your facts straight. Since the 1980s, the demand for U.S. currency has grown at an increasingly steady pace. Infographic here.
Prediction: The U.S. economy is not strong enough to handle a rate hike given the manufacturing and earnings recessions we are now experiencing. Worse, the world is incapable of handling it. (Dec 2015)
Nope. Janet Yellen doesn’t decide on rate hikes. The economy tells her when it’s time for a rate hike. Two hikes later, no end of the world; just record breaking major stock market indexes.
Prediction: A safe haven from the coming market meltdown is to move into Gold (Jan 2016)
Nope. Gold is trading at just about the same price as it was a year after that article was written. It’s a supercycle folks, and they’re betting the wrong end of it.
Prediction: It’s time to prepare for the bear market because we’re entering an earnings recession (Nov 2015).
Nope. Seems they missed that whole round trip cycle in the energy market. Earnings are back. They must have been busy making up all of this bullshit in the interim and forgot to check.
Bad Predictions, Festering Issues
And these are just a small selection of mistakes; they go on and on and on; interest rates are going to kill us, the stock markets are about to plummet, Trump is riding the fourth horse of the Armageddon, buy bonds and save yourself, Gold is a sure bet…
And where is the accountability? Where are the apologies? How about some concern for the damage these types of predictions do to people who trust these writers and alter portfolios, college savings and retirement income investments?
That’s the only time these folks go quiet.
So, when next you read a story from someone who tells you that he can predict the future, try checking out the author’s track record first and see if what they’ve predicted to happen has ever actually come to pass.
Because after all, it’s your money.