Investor Points of Few: Dire Straits? The Song Remains the Same…

By Alan Steel

The dire straits economic doomsday band continues to crank out the hits.


Wonder why they don’t they look back at history?

Think of August 1982. Back then “they” predicted economic collapse under the weight of petrol in the US (about 50p a gallon), 15% inflation, 16.5% mortgages, roaring budget deficits, and no growth.

The predictions were all about recession. Nobody saw the 18 year bull market coming.

How about what comes to mind when you think about October 19th 1987?

The Dow Jones in the US went 572 points straight down. It fell to 1722. And have you looked at it lately? It’s heading for 23,000.

I wonder if anybody realised that the final 10 minutes of that day in October was the last time they’d get the chance to buy equities cheap.

Then there’s 1991. House prices were collapsing, banks were going bust, executives were getting arrested and debts were soaring.

Who would have thought the Tech world was right around the corner and about to deliver its first wave?

Move forward to 1995 and 1996. Dire straits again, right? Recession fears, followed inflation worries, followed US Fed tightening, consumers in trouble, petrol rises, Middle East turmoil, and apparently OPEC was toothless.

And China? Well, back then China was a dud.

Anybody see the second wave of tech growth coming at us?

Onto the infamous year 2000. Everything was good with the World. Experts were pointing to blue skies forever. People prayed for corrections so they could buy Tech shares cheaper. Bad news was ignored and every investor was a winner.

Anybody see the Tech burst coming? Anybody see property, energy, materials, and the oil boom coming?

2008 arrived and even house pets had gold cards and a second home they’d self-certified with a paw print.

And here we are today. So where’s the sentiment? What’s the public opinion about how things are?

Recession, recession, recession.

Jings, looking at history that should make you feel quite good!

Alan Steel, Chairman, Alan Steel Asset Management

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