Investor Points of Few – A Bad Case of Premature Prognostication?

“Like most folks trying to forecast the next economic Armageddon they tend to have to stick with their predictions for many years before it finally comes true; in the same way a chocolate watch eventually gets the time right…”

By Alan Steel

What is it with these folks?

The latest maudlin Mouseketeer to join the market’s media darlings of doom – Nouriel Roubini, John Mauldin and Harry Dent – is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale.

This week Edwards spoke out about the, “inevitable catastrophe that lies ahead” and how we stand, “after another eight years of economic stagnation…”


14,000 Dow Jones points higher over the past eight plus years? Corporate profits at record highs, US household leveraging at record lows, chemicals sales looking good, investor sentiment in the dumps (that’s a good thing, by the way), and a host of other indicators that say, “Slow recovery? Yeah, sure. Good recovery. Oh, definitely yes.”

And then comes the apology…in the same article.

You couldn’t make this stuff up.

He writes:

“My dire prognostications back in January 2010 proved premature (as usual). It has taken another seven years of economic stagnation and falling living standards of working people, together with the sight of the rich getting richer as a result of central bank QE polices, for the patience of ordinary working people to snap – most visibly in the US and UK elections. That rage has not diminished and, as Bill Gross predicted, the system is in the process of breaking down.”

Hmmm…Sounds like a bad case of premature prognostication…

And the rich are most certainly getting richer, probably by not following advice that says to wait for Armageddon; a suggestion based almost purely on rhetoric, as there aren’t many market facts around to support that position.

And what happens to all of those investors who’ve followed this type of advice for the last eight years, and missed out on all the upward equity movement and compounding interest?

I guess eventually he might be right. But who would you follow? Folks like him or folks like Pring Turner or Ned Davis Research? Check their records.

Keep that in mind the next time a merchant of doom is making headlines. Google their name and see how many times they’ve got it wrong in the past.

It might save you a lot of time and lost returns.

And after all folks, it’s your money we’re talking about here.

Alan Steel, Chairman, Alan Steel Asset Management

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