Slap Me Awake When It’s Over: Counting the Market Lifeboats

By Ed Emerson

Ok, let’s see what the media is trying to sell us today:

  • Apparently Iain Duncan Smith has ‘declared war’ on David Cameron by accusing him of having a ‘low opinion’ of Brits and mocking his ‘pessimistic’ campaign to stay in the EU…Wow! That’s real ‘pistols at dawn’ stuff, eh? Slap me with a handkerchief, you bounder…..
  • A 100 foot wide huge asteroid named 2013 TX68 could hit Earth and cause Armageddon…zzzzzzzz…zzzzzzzz…..
  • It’s a book worth burning: Dr Adam Perkins, author of ‘The Welfare Trait‘, says welfare claimants are less conscientious and agreeable than the average person, reproduce at higher rates than the general population, and do so when governments turn on the spigot marked ‘spending’. Each copy should come with your choice of white hood, balaclava or Swastika tattoo…..
  • The Met Office is clearly vying for their place in the buzz word / phrase of the year stakes with their recent prediction of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), which in practical terms means they think it’s going to be bloody cold over Easter. Hey, whatever happened to ‘Arctic Blast’?…..
  • Donald Trump has been criticised for quoting Mussolini’s line on Twitter: “It is better to live one day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep” because doing so must mean he’s a Fascist, eh?…..

Ahhh, yes…here it is…How Much Stocks Outperform Bonds Over the Long Term

Sometimes a single chart can tell you so much:

STOCKS VS BONDS

At a time when we are setting the wrong kind of records for market sentiment – investors and advisers alike think stocks suck, which is usually a very good time to find good value in this asset class – and £billions are being pulled from the market each week and moved into low-interest, low-return options like bond funds and cash deposits, the above chart serves as a stark reminder of our goldfish-like memories.

The media and pundits are playing Titanic games with everyone’s feelings, telling us we should be counting the lifeboats that will get us out of this market because that stuff sells newspapers, newsletters and drives viewer stats.  

But if you take a good long look at that chart above again, you might just think that maybe the best move right now is to do absolutely nothing.

And if you’re looking for more detail to justify that opinion, have a read of The Holy Grail of Recession Indicators.

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