I see it’s becoming a widely held view among “experts” and other official pessimists that you can’t forecast future investment performance. So is it time to change some well known investment book titles?
The profitless prophets out there have figured out that people love to buy books and newsletters that howl warnings at everything. And the investor herd’s reactions to that fear – buying into shit investment products and missing out on things like a near eight year bull market – make them feel like they’ve eluded some terrible fate.
So much ado about Trump and altitude sickness over Dow Jones 20,000 point markers, that less attention (as ever) has been pointed towards all the good news and trends.
Now, you might like to know that in the US, bearish sentiment (as measured by the AAII sentiment numbers ) is today exactly the same as it was in March 2009…after 8 years of a bull market. Remember that it’s euphoria we should be worrying about, and there’s little sign of that thanks to all the noise and our evolutionary response to it.